The US Energy Information Agency's (EIA) International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016) Reference case assumes that OPEC maintains or increases its market share of global oil production, and that no geopolitical circumstances will cause prolonged supply shocks in the OPEC countries that could further limit production growth.

Crude oil and lease condensate supplies from OPEC and non-OPEC sources increase by 23 million barrels per day in the IEO2016 Reference case, from 76 million barrels per day in 2012 to 100 million barrels per day in 2040.

Production of other liquid fuels increases from 14 million barrels per day in 2012 to 21 million barrels per day in 2040.

The IEO2016 Reference case assumes that OPEC producers invest in incremental production capacity, which enables them to increase crude oil and lease condensate production by 13 million barrels per day from 2012 to 2040 and also enables them to account for 42 to 47 percent of total crude and lease condensate production worldwide over the course of the projection period.

Middle East OPEC member countries, which accounted for nearly 70 percent of total OPEC crude and lease condensate production in 2012, increase their crude and lease condensate production by 12 million barrels per day in the IEO2016 Reference case, accounting for 94 percent of the total growth in OPEC crude and lease condensate production from 2012 to 2040.

Source: Trend