Predicts announced deal volumes in APAC will remain healthy over the next six months
SYDNEY, Feb. 3, 2015 /PRNewswire/ — Intralinks® Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: IL), a leading, global SaaS provider of content management and collaboration solutions, announced today the release of the Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor (DFP), a unique indicator of future mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activity.
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The Q2 2015 Intralinks DFP forecasts changes in the volume of global M&A deals expected to be announced in the next six months, showing early-stage M&A activity in Asia Pacific remains varied, with a 17 per cent increase YoY and six per cent decrease QoQ. Across the region, only Japan saw a decline YoY. We are also seeing strong levels of activity in Southeast Asia, Australia and South Korea.
"Based on the early-stage M&A activity that we are seeing, we predict announced deal volumes in APAC to remain healthy over the next six months, with growth at or above our global prediction of 9 to 15 per cent year-on-year growth. Most sectors are contributing to the increase in activity, with the notable exception of the Materials sector. Materials has been hit by a sharp slowdown in Metals & Mining transactions, as the commodity price super cycle which was fueled by rapid Chinese industrialisation comes to an end," said Philip Whitchelo, vice president, strategy and product marketing at Intralinks.
Australia is a case in point – the volume of Metals & Mining deals as a proportion of all inbound and domestic M&A peaked at 33 per cent in 2009, but was only 18 per cent of inbound/domestic M&A in 2014. Inbound/domestic deal volumes in Metals & Mining fell by 24 per cent year-on-year in 2014, while value declined even more by 46 per cent. However, Australian M&A has remained remarkably resilient in the face of the Metals & Mining slowdown.
"While total inbound M&A deal volumes declined by 19 per cent year-on-year in 2014, outbound M&A deal volume also increased by 19 per cent as Australian companies embarked on an international buying spree in sectors such as Energy & Power, Consumer Products & Services, Healthcare and Industrials. Domestic Australian M&A deal volumes in 2014 also increased by 7 per cent, as sectors such as Healthcare, Consumer Products & Services, Media & Entertainment and High Technology compensated for the Metals & Mining slowdown."
On a global level, the Q2 2015 DFP shows a one per cent quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increase and a 12 per cent year-over-year (YoY) increase in early-stage global M&A activity, with particularly strong performances in Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) and North America. Taken together with the results of the previous DFP released on October 20, 2014, the latest Intralinks DFP points to continued strong growth in global M&A activity through the first half of 2015, although there are some significant regional variations.
"2014 saw a return to significant growth for global M&A markets, for the first time since 2010, both in terms of deal volume and value. Global announced deal volumes in 2014 have increased by 12.5 per cent compared to 2013. This is higher than our prediction made six months ago that there would be a 7 to 11 per cent YoY increase in 2014."
Deal value in 2014 was up even more, by 45 per cent, driven by a sharp increase in the number of larger transactions, with the number of announced deals over $5 billion in value having more than doubled to 80 in 2014. The total value of announced deals in 2014 was $3.5 trillion, the highest level since the last peak in the M&A market in 2007.
Intralinks also revealed the findings from its Global Sentiment Survey that gauged opinions among M&A professionals on the future deal environment. The combined results provide exclusive insights into global M&A deal volumes and market trends through Q2 2015.
Intralinks DFP Highlights – Outlook for Q2 2015
The Intralinks DFP tracks early-stage M&A deals (sell-side M&A transactions that are in the preparation stage or that have reached the due diligence stage) across the world, on average six months prior to their public announcement. Intralinks is the leading global provider of virtual data rooms. Its involvement in the early stages of a significant percentage of the world’s M&A transactions gives the company a distinctive view into the expected volume of future M&A deal announcements. The Intralinks DFP has been independently verified as an accurate predictor of future changes in the number of announced global M&A transactions, with QoQ percentage changes in the Intralinks DFP typically being reflected on average six months later in announced deal volumes, as reported by Thomson Reuters.
"Based on the activity reported in this DFP report, the volume of global announced M&A in 1H 2015 will be significantly above that of 1H 2014," added Whitchelo. "The mid-point of our forecast is for 12 per cent growth YoY, with a range of between 9 and 15 per cent. While we expect that mega deals (those over $5 billion) will continue to dominate the headlines, we believe that the number of mega deals announced in 2015 will be fewer than in 2014, while mid-market M&A will remain strong and financial sponsor activity will increase."
Highlights from the latest Intralinks DFP include:
North American early-stage M&A activity is up 10 per cent YoY and less than one per cent QoQ, supported by continued strength in the economy, low interest rates, and pressure on corporates to generate growth in a low inflation environment.
Europe continues to perform strongly and consistently. Early-stage M&A activity is up 18 per cent YoY and seven per cent QoQ. Stable, "safe-haven" countries such as Germany continue to be a major driver of M&A activity in the region. The rebound in activity in economies with strong recovery potential, such as France, Italy and Spain, continues.
The deal-making environment in Latin America is still weak. The DFP shows a 17 per cent decline in early-stage M&A activity YoY and a nine per cent QoQ decline. Brazil and Mexico, the region’s largest and second largest economies, are being negatively affected by sharp drops in prices for key exports such as oil and iron ore, as the commodity price super cycle which was fueled by Chinese industrialisation comes to an end.
Global Sentiment Survey
In December 2014, Intralinks conducted a survey of 770global M&A professionals to gauge dealmakers’ sentiments and views on the M&A market. The survey’s results show that dealmakers remain positive, although their optimism has waned slightly from the previous quarter. Dealmakers reported that they expect energy and power and technology to be the two most active sectors over the next six months and still see deal valuation as the most difficult part of M&A transactions.
Highlights of the survey results include:
- 55 per cent of M&A professionals are optimistic about the deal environment in the next six months, compared to 60 per cent the previous quarter
- 64 per cent expect deals volumes to increase over the next six months, compared to 69 per cent the previous quarter
- 60 per cent think that the significant increase in the number of mega deals that have been announced in 2014 is a useful indicator of the health of the broader M&A market
- 43 per cent said the biggest barrier to getting an M&A deal completed is being able to locate a suitable buyer.
For more information, please contact:
DEC Public Relations on behalf of Intralinks
Josephine George | Anna Frilingos
02 8014 5036 | Intralinks@decpr.com.au
About Intralinks Dealspace®
Intralinks is a leading supplier of solutions for managing strategic transactions. Intralinks Dealspace, the market leading virtual data room (VDR), gives M&A professionals a complete solution to manage the full lifecycle of a deal. Intralinks Dealspace supports every step of the deal process, enabling deal teams to securely exchange data with buyers, sellers and advisors, helping speed strategic transactions such as mergers, acquisitions, divestitures, capital raises and corporate restructurings.
About the Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor
The Intralinks Deal Flow Predictor provides Intralinks’ perspective on the level of M&A due diligence activity taking place during any given period of time. The statistics contained in the Intralinks DFP represent the volume of VDRs opened, or proposed to be opened, through Intralinks or other providers for the purpose of conducting due diligence on proposed transactions including asset sales, divestitures, private placements, financings, capital raises, joint ventures and partnerships. These statistics are not adjusted for changes in Intralinks’ share of the VDR market or changes in market demand for VDR services. These statistics may not correlate to the volume of completed transactions that may be reported by market data providers and should not be construed to represent the volume of transactions that will ultimately be consummated during any period of time. Indications of future completed deal activity derived from the DFP are based on assumed rates of deals going from due diligence stage to completion. In addition, the statistics reported by market data providers may be compiled with a different set of transaction types than those set forth above.
For more information about the Intralinks DFP, please visit our website.
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